Storm Chaos Weather

The weather has been downright cold, that has been the top story this week. Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible all across the Northeast over the next few hours. A coastal storm is expected to develop off the NC/SC coast and move north and eastward. This should help pull down another round of colder air behind it. Upsloping and lake effect snow to continue this weekend as well.

All eyes are on next week as I’m watching a clipper system with possible coastal development. Not too much details on this storm just yet as I am not sure exactly what happens with this system just yet. Clipper system brings in lake effect snows across Lake Eerie and Ontario then somewhere from Jersey coast up to MA coast we see a coastal develop. Not sure exactly where. Interesting that we see cold air coming down on the backside of the upper-level low and clipper system. As the low pulls away it will also bring down some cooler air. Depending on the low track it will determine who sees snow and who sees mixed and rain. It is way too early to pinpoint the details but the forecast is slowly coming together. More updates over the weekend.

STORM CHAOS WEATHER WILL NOT BE UPDATED TOMORROW AS I WILL BE TRAVELING HOME FOR THANKSGIVING BREAK FROM LYNDON STATE COLLEGE.

Forecaster: Joe Gullo

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If you have stepped outside this afternoon, anywhere from Maine to Philadelphia, you know that it is downright chilly out there. Temperatures all across the region are struggling to get out of the 30s. In some spots in New England highs haven’t been able to get out of the 20s. If you factor in the wind chill you know it feels much worse and colder.

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The latest radar continues to show snow showers coming off of Lake Ontario and Eerie. Some of this precipitation is not reaching the ground, but the areas that are seeing this reach the surface are picking up some light accumulations. Don’t expect moderation in the temperatures anytime soon as the cold keeps getting re-enforced across the region by these weak clipper type systems. Another clipper system looks to bring some snow showers and flurries to the region by Thursday and into Friday. Northwest flow behind this system will usher in some more Lake Effect snow potential and keep the chilly air in place.

Forecaster: Joe Gullo

Let’s take a look at some of the surface data being reported across the New Jersey, Philadelphia area.

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If you look at the temperatures you can see that many are in the upper 20s to low 30s, with the exception of some coastal communities as they are close to the ocean. Also note how cold the dew point temperatures across this region, low to middle 20s. There is some precipitation over this region, but there haven’t been many reports of precipitation due to the cold air.

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You can see on this graphic that the coastal low is coming up the Jersey coastline and will eventually be kicked out. You can see there is still Lake Effect snow falling across Upstate New York. Some of this moisture is still making its way into Vermont. It is very light across Vermont, but there is still some heavy moisture plumes coming off the lakes which is causing accumulations. I’m not expecting much accumulations from this coastal low in NJ, NYC metro, and Philly Metro, but it is cold enough to support wintry precipitation across this region. I think <.50″ of snowfall accumulation. Some areas could see a dusting, especially on grassy surfaces. Heavy accumulations from the Lake Effect snow plumes some areas could see anywhere from 4-8″+ of snowfall accumulation across western NY.

Stay tuned,

Forecaster: Joe Gullo

What a shift in the weather! The days of 60 degree weather in the Northeast is more than likely over until the spring. Unless of course we hit an unusual patch of unseasonably warm weather.

Lets take a look at our precipitation prediction map. Even though it says it is for Tuesday at 00:00z, it really means Monday (Today) at 7 PM. 00:00z is in UTC or Universal Time Code. When you convert to Eastern time it is 7 PM.

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The green coloring indicates a slight chance of precipitation. The lighter the coloring the less of a chance you will see precipitation. The yellows indicate more of risk of seeing some precipitation and the darker the yellows equals the greater the chance of precipitation. Lake Eerie and Ontario are at the greatest risk of seeing precipitation over the next couple of hours, due to the fact of Lake Effect snow.

We have been seeing some amazing snowfall accumulations from this area. Check out the latest storm report from the National Weather Service in Buffalo! Click here to see the storm reports.

Below is the jet stream

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I showed the graphic of the jet stream on Saturday and it showed a deep trough impacting much of the Midwest and south. This trough as forecasted has moved eastward. You could see the base of the trough over Ohio into western PA. Strong westerly winds are coming off of Lake Eerie and Ontario which is one of the reasons why they saw Lake Effect snow. The colder air going over the warm lake waters to produce snow. There is some ridging west of the Rockies will will eventually track eastward. The ridge should level out over the next few days and become more zonal (west to east flow).

A coastal system may develop offshore which could cause for some cloudiness across southern New England, especially along the Jersey coast. This storm should have limited impact on the weather across the Northeast as it will be kicked offshore. A clipper system may bring some snow showers and mixed precipitation to the region later on this week. Precipitation is expected to be light from this system. The biggest weather story this week will be the colder temperatures and Lake Effect snow.

The weather was very interesting today as a cold front continues to move through the region.Tornado watches were issued early in the day in anticipation for some severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes to develop across the region. Majority of the reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) were for wind damage. Majority of the region saw some pretty heavy rainfall!

Below is the current surface map…

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You can see that there are two cold fronts on the map. The first one is continuing to move through the region while another one is right behind it. Interesting to note is that behind the first one there is rainfall but behind the second one, some mixed precipitation and some snow. The first one goes through but doesn’t bring that much change in the temperatures. The second one goes through and brings the coldest air of the season to the region. This front should move through the early part of the day tomorrow and you’ll definetely feel the change by tomorrow evening. Bundle up because it is going to be cold out there. Lake Effect snow will be likely as we develop strong Northwest winds…

I want to show you the current conditions at this hour and just show you how warm it is ahead of this front and how cold it is behind this front. Some spots even in New England are seeing 60s and Boston is flirting with mid to upper 60s. If you look beyond Syracuse you can see the colder air. This air will be moving in for tomorrow!

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Now lets look at the upper-level…

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The above graphic illustrates the jet stream. You can see in the east there is a massive ridge but across the Great Lakes you can see there is a major dip in the jet stream. This is known as a trough and this will be moving eastward into the region. Some modification in temperatures can be expected as this trough moves eastward, but not by much. This is a serious trough as the base of the trough dips all the way down into southern Arkansas and Tennessee.

Forecaster: Joe Gullo